The Evolution Has Been Happening For Five Years - We're Noticing It Now

Here's the framework I am working on ... as I learn more, I reserve the right to change the framework.

My hypothesis.

• COVID changed how marketers "market" to customers, teaching a generation of marketers how to use a fusion of video and community (which both existed prior to COVID) increasingly fueled by AI (#tiktok) to sell to customers who "trust" those making the content.
• As more brands become good at Customer Media Marketing, response leaks out of Direct Response Marketing and Brand Marketing, causing those disciplines to become less effective.
• As Direct Response Marketing becomes less effective, more brands attempt to get the clicks that remain, driving up costs in a discipline that is simultaneously becoming less effective.
• Direct Response Marketers, instead of embracing Customer Media Marketing, embrace Product Marketing channels like Marketplaces (i.e. Amazon), where they continue the tradition of paying a nominal fee for access to customers ... ultimately transitioning from being a Direct Response Marketer to being a supplier for a Marketplace. The Direct Response Marketer becomes the "Dries Van Noten" to Nordstrom.

Obviously, Direct Response Marketing isn't "dead" as a small number of pundits might say. Rather, this is the end of an era. At some point, Customer Media Marketing will become too crowded, and a newer and more relevant version of Direct Response Marketing will emerge. But for today? Change is in the air.

Why do I think change is in the air?

When I analyze your data, there are clear trends, trends that accelerated post-COVID.

• Loyal Customers generally have similar repurchase rates over time.
• All other Customers generally have lower repurchase rates than they had in 2015-2019.
• Regardless of Direct Response business model, it is becoming VERY difficult to acquire new customers at a reasonable cost.

There was a day a year ago when this all really started to click for me. I'm analyzing customer behavior (a hollowed-out middle of the customer file paired with customer acquisition challenges) while watching a Headphones.com video about open-backed headphones ... meanwhile my wife is in her office watching live coverage of a "national de-cluttering day" ... an all-day seminar hosted by de-cluttering experts. I don't even know if this is the right link, if wrong, it's similar ... maybe this one. That woman has a million followers and several hundred thousand views of popular videos. I mean, Joe Rogan and his ilk gets all the attention ... but this stuff is everywhere, bubbling under the surface ... and it is increasingly linked to ecommerce (i.e. Headphones.com).

As a commenter said to me on LinkedIn ... "YouTube is now the primary lead gen source for many businesses".

Once you see this ... and then see the connection to Community and Action Streams (capturing customer interactions like visiting your forum or website ... then sending streams of emails to customers based on their forum/website activity) ... you realize that a chunk of activity that used to reside in Direct Response now resides in Customer Media Marketing.

This evolution has been happening for the past five years ... we're just noticing it now.